As the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and try and avoid paying out, we can still find holes within their predictions. The question is how. There’s no one million-dollar answer. Nonetheless, you will find two ways that can permit you to beat the bookies. One of the ways is to analyze non-measurable match information. A different way is to improve on statistical prediction models employed by bookmakers.

The first method requires you to analyze data such as match type or priority, which isn’t employed in statistical models. Among-the most prominent factors that may influence the outcome of a soccer match are:

Match type which can be an international/national league, a cup, or a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites and also the better informed punter can benefit from betting on the highly priced underdog teams.

Match priority. Each team has to define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are restricted. European national cups are good examples for the top teams of low priority games.

Match time is important, since soccer predictions are usually inaccurate at the beginning and Recommended Website at the end of the season.

Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially within the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds tend to be calculated before these details is accessible.

European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues are considered predictable. The unpredictable will be the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning and the end of the season.

Additional circumstances are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, as always, pure chance.

To analyze all that information for every match would be a complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute a change on bookies’ prediction models.

Why can their models be further improved? Foremost, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it is easy to notice that their models are determined by average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with high table positions and vice versa. It’s clear that the accuracy of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by bearing in mind team skill dynamics, you can increase your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.

Second, the bookmakers’ models don’t distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and do not remember that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. Once you learn how to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can simply forecast the total number of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.

Statistical models that have been developed over the past few years explain historical match results when it comes to changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers don’t use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict around 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy is significantly lower.