How You Can identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the top Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and how they give a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.

A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or even the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not appear to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any person bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they are “under round” . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers don’t offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. It means that you may bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by that you just can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the aforementioned data it’s pretty obvious that the 4 – 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there isn’t any difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so may be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you study the chances of each outcome just isn’t for this article. It deserves more detailed treatment than may be given here where we are handling bookmakers’ margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There can be occasions when it is crucial to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there’s a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it’s essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is an excellent one to show the way to use percentages.

It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or Check Out Pau bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. Due to this you’ll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.