While the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and attempt to avoid paying out, we can still find holes in their predictions. The question is how. There’s no one million-dollar answer. On the other hand, you’ll find two ways that will allow you to beat the bookies. One way is to analyze non-measurable match information. One other way is to improve on statistical prediction models employed by bookmakers.

The very first method requires you to analyze data such as match type or priority, which is just not used in statistical models. Among-the most prominent factors that might influence the outcome of a soccer match are:

Match type which may be an international/national league, a cup, or a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites as well as the better informed punter can make the most of betting on the highly priced underdog teams.

Match priority. Each team has to define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are limited. European national cups are good examples for the top teams of low priority games.

Match time is very important, since soccer predictions are often inaccurate at the beginning and at the end of the season.

Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially in the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds are usually calculated before this data is available.

European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues are thought about predictable. The unpredictable are the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning as well as the end of the season.

Additional factors are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, as always, pure chance.

To analyze all that information Ggather link for more info every match would be a complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute an improvement on bookies’ prediction models.

Why can their models be further improved? First of all, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it really is easy to notice that their models are according to average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with good table positions and vice versa. It is clear that the accuracy of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into account team skill dynamics, you can increase your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.

Second, the bookmakers’ models do not distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and do not remember the fact that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. As soon as you learn how to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can easily forecast the total range of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.

Statistical models who were developed over the past few years explain historical match results in terms of changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers don’t use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict around 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy will be much lower.