Home › Forums › Deel hier je recept! › Safe Online Casino Soccer Secret 535615256692227
- Dit onderwerp is leeg.
-
AuteurBerichten
-
garrettwolfgramGast
The search for profit does not end when you have found the most effective football betting tips. There is still a lot to be done to guarantee consistent profit. Money management will be as necessary as using the right football betting tips.
However in the rush to get their cash on, the majority of people overlook this important aspect of football betting. So what is money management? Let’s look-at it in basic terms: You are betting on two football matches. You know that one will produce a profit 80% of the time and also the other has a 50-50 chance of winning. You would want to put more money on the match with an 80% chance of profit wouldn’t you? Which is money management.
It’s basically managing your money to cope with risk. So logic says that on the risky bets, you should risk less money and on the bets that are stronger, you may need to stake extra money. This may seem like common sense to you, but it’s often overlooked.
Now the next question is: How do we calculate how much to put on a team? The most typical method is to use the same amount (level stake) on each selection. While this can work within the long haul, within the short-term it’s important to watch out for long sequences of losers from the bigger priced football tips. Four or five losers in a row can quickly deplete your bank. Therefore it may be better to look for a different approach.
Another approach suggested by many is the Kelly Criterion. On the contrary, Kelly requires you to learn the probability of a win. The bet size is then determined by first converting the price on offer into a probability. You then have to estimate the probability of your bet winning. The real difference between the sports book’s price probability as well as your probability must be positive. If it’s negative, you should drop this football tip like a ton of bricks and move on to the next match. The size of the bet is then calculated using this difference in probability. A bigger difference would suggest a bigger investment as well as a small difference would suggest a small investment.
Now when you can imagine, a typical person can’t estimate the probability of his football prediction winning. So this method is of little use to him. Yes, the mathematicians’ and professionals rave about this formula, and don’t get me wrong, it’s great online football in theory – but it fails in practice. If fails for at least for 90% of the individuals who try and use it, and I’m guessing that’s you and me included.
Instead I want to use the common price available. Sports Books have studied the matches thorough and it’s not often that they get the costs wrong. So why not use this to our advantage? This makes our foes greatest strength their weakness. Yes, I know that upsets happen, but if you look at sports book prices over a long period, you will find that if they quote a result at even money, that result will occur close to 50% of the time.
So by utilizing this as the true probability of the result we can accurately calculate the amount to invest on each football tip.
-
AuteurBerichten