If one of your value bet loses, it does not mean the sports bet won’t have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets can be winning bets. The decisive factor is to search out value in your picks. Keep in mind, the greater the number of value bets, the bigger the profit you may achieve.

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result is not enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to get the best from it. Results are not absolutely the same, quite simply a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and also the same possible outcome for match B will certainly not produce the exact same result (i.e. a correct prediction or possibly a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well you can find hundreds of reasons why and you will never be able to account for all of them, if you can you would without doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you could look-at such qualitative things as the present injury number of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We can also look-at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look-at things like past performance, position within the league, or maybe more tried and tested statistical methods such as the Rateform method. We can utilize all of this data to predict the outcome of match A as well as the outcome of match B and still not have the same result, a part of the reason behind this is, as explained before, that we can not account for all the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there’s something else, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

Whenever we look at one match in isolation we only look-at the factors concerning each of the 2 teams in the match, but why not expand this to look at how another teams they have played will also be performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear some of you say. Because results are not always the same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we consider to enhance the prediction of a home win? We can look-at the performance of all of the home win tips created for the exact same competition that the match is being played in and then make a judgement based on that new information. This is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to remember the fact that we did not have before.

Looking across all the home win predictions in an individual league will give us a portion success rate for home wins for that specific league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across a variety of leagues and obtaining a share success rate for each league. This implies we can now look for the league which produces the top overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we know that that league might be more likely to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than every other. Of-course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions also.

How Tight Will be the League?:

Why does this distinction among the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of just one match there are various factors that make up this phenomenon, but there are actually just a couple of major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins by way of a season than another. The most obvious of these could be described as the ’tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ’tightness’? In any league there is often a gap within the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the top of the league and those at the bottom, this is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being much more competitive than others due to a more in-depth level of skills through the league, ‘a tight league’. In the example of a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will most likely be of a lower frequency.

For this reason, let’s say we have been enthusiastic about predicting a home win, armed with our new information about the ’tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches throughout a season for as many leagues even as we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You will find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ’tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we will have more success with our home predictions. Don’t be misled, this won’t mean that simply because there are actually more home wins we have been bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the number of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins there are. As an example, let’s say we make one hundred home predictions in league A and 100 in league B, and let’s say that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the same number of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are probably due to the ’tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ’tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class in relation to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the most effective performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of course there might be more to it than that. It’s no good just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the exact same rules to each and every tip made. You will need to make sure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your best settings for each method and stick to them for every single prediction, for every league, as well as for the entire season. You must do this as a way to retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, as well as over time. There’s nothing stopping you using several different sets of parameters as long when you keep your data produced from each separate.