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The look for profit does not end as soon as you have found the best football betting tips. There is still a lot to be done to guarantee consistent profit. Money management is just as vital as using the correct football betting tips.
However in the rush to get their cash on, a lot of people overlook this important aspect of football betting. So what is money management? Let’s look at it in basic terms: You are betting on two football matches. You realize that one will produce a profit 80% of the time and the other has a 50-50 chance of winning. You would want to put extra money on the match having an 80% chance of profit wouldn’t you? That is money management.
It is basically managing your hard earned money to manage with risk. So logic says that on the risky bets, you should risk less cash and on the bets that will be stronger, you need to stake extra money. This may seem like common sense to you, playing online soccer gambling but it’s often overlooked.
Now the next question is: How do we calculate the amount to put on a team? The most frequent method is to use the exact same amount (level stake) on each selection. While this may work in the long term, within the short-run you have to watch out for long sequences of losers from the bigger priced football tips. Four or five losers in a row can quickly deplete your bank. Therefore it may be better to look for a different approach.
Another approach suggested by many will be the Kelly Criterion. However, Kelly requires you to learn the probability of a win. The bet size is then determined by first converting the price on offer into a probability. You then have to estimate the probability of your bet winning. The difference between the sports book’s price probability as well as your probability must be positive. If it’s negative, you should drop this football tip like a ton of bricks and move on to the next match. The size of the bet is then calculated using this difference in probability. A bigger difference would suggest a bigger investment and also a small difference would suggest a small investment.
Now as you can imagine, the common person can not estimate the probability of his football prediction winning. So this method is of little use to him. Yes, the mathematicians’ and professionals rave concerning this formula, and don’t get me wrong, it is great in theory – but it fails in practice. If fails for at least for 90% of the people who try to use it, and I am guessing that’s you and me included.
Instead I want to use the regular price available. Sports Books have studied the matches in depth and it is not often that they get the costs wrong. So why not use this to our advantage? This makes our foes greatest strength their weakness. Yes, I realize that upsets happen, but if you look-at sports book prices over a long period, you will find that whenever they quote a result at even money, that result will occur close to 50% of the time.
So by utilizing this as the true probability of the result we can accurately calculate the amount to invest on each football tip.
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